A Colossal Blunder

The great big fizzle that was the Republican 'red wave' in the mid-term election is nevertheless on the cusp of swinging control of the House of Representatives from the Democrats (who held a 220-212 majority, with three vacancies) to the GOP. That Republican majority, slim as it likely will be, can be credited in no small part to that bluest-of-blue states, New York. Specifically, to the hubris of the Democrats who run it from their smoke-filled rooms in Albany.

This past June, I remarked on how an outward flow of population reduced New York's delegation to the House of Representatives from 27 seats to 26.

A Tale of Two States

This change required that the state's Congressional districts be redrawn. Per New York's constitution, and specifically a change installed via referendum (in 2014) and upheld by subsequent referendum (in 2021, when the Democrats tried and failed to undermine the 2014 referendum’s strictures), that redistricting was to be carried out by a bipartisan committee. With Icarian hubris, the Democrats sought to game those rules (their appointees stalled past the committee’s deadline) so that they could gerrymander the bejeezus out of the map, in order to cull a couple Republicans from the delegation's ranks. A judge took a look at what they did, said "uh-uh, nope, no way, not so fast," and appointed a nonpartisan special master, who drew maps that were not only law-conforming but far more geographically logical.

And in doing so, set the stage for a "hoist on their own petard" comeuppance for New York's Democrats. For, rather than gerrymandering 3-4 seats away from the Republicans by adding some deep-blue neighborhoods to red districts, the Dems find themselves losing 5 seats. Rather than upping their 20-7 advantage in the state to 24-3, they now hold 15 seats to the GOP's 11.

If we subtract 5 NY Democrats and add 4 Republicans to the 2022 Congressional split, and assume the 3 vacant seats don't change parties, we get 217 D and 218 R, and that's before we even look at the rest of the nation. Or, if we consider the intended vs actual effect, we see a nine seat swing, blue to red.

As of my writing this, the House tally stands at 218R-210D, with the uncalled seats likely to split evenly. That’d give the GOP a 5 seat majority margin.

Imagine if New York's arrogant Blue party leaders had simply let the redistricting commission do its work, instead of trying to game the system. Perhaps they'd have broken even. That's might be all it would have taken to keep Congress under Democratic Party control.

Will they learn from this colossal blunder, and behave in an even slightly statesmanlike manner in the future? Will they say “we want the voters - all the voters - to have more respect for us and for the government overall?”

I doubt it. In the words of the late, great P. J. O'Rourke:

Hubris is one of the great renewable resources.

Nancy Pelosi will likely be shipping a few stockings full of of coal to Albany this Christmas.

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