America’s Fatal Attraction
Evidently, nobody is optimistic about the 2024 Presidential race. A recent article in the WSJ says it best: “A sense of helplessness, anxiety, and foreboding hangs in the air ... Whoever wins, the country loses. What genius invented this election?”
Yours truly blogged the same sentiment in my article 2024: A Bad Moon Rising.
Yet, recent polling data does not reflect this. Trump and Biden both poll from about 40 to 45 percent of respondents (leap-frogging back and forth from week to week). This only leaves about 10 to 15 percent for “other/undecided”. That just doesn’t sound like mass disenfranchisement with the two major party contenders.
In a story, a Fatal Attraction is when the protagonist is infatuated with a person or thing, despite it being inappropriate or ill-advised. The attraction eventually destroys either the protagonist or his/her object of desire, or both.
What could possibly explain this real-life love-hate relationship between the people and the politicians that everyone says they hate, yet are willing to pledge their eternal faith, trust, and loyalty and follow to the ends of the earth?
The loyalty of Trump supporters is especially baffling. There is a substantial chance that Trump might be convicted of a crime (pick one) and could be campaigning from behind bars. Will that deter his supporters? Dream on.
Recently I was listening to talk radio, a hard-core bastion of conservatism if there ever was one. Both callers and hosts alike continuously made comments along the lines of “Trump won!” in 2020. This idea has been fact-checked, audited, litigated, and proven false countless times by the courts, statisticians, election officials, and the news media - yet the Trump die-hards never stop.
It’s the ultimate example of selective cognition. Just like Simon & Garfunkel sang: a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest.
The best explanation rests on our age-old nemesis: government deification. People just love government, and the power it represents. Politicians, especially those with good name recognition, are bigtime celebrities who make folks swoon. What better way to elevate oneself than to proudly say: I voted for the winner!
On the positive side: the election is still a year-and-a-half away, and lots could happen between now and then. And of course, the numbers above are just opinion polls, which have a dubious relationship with how voters will actually behave.
The brightest glimmer of hope is that some minor party candidate will actually get some public attention. They could nominate a big-name rock star with loads of intelligence and a clear message that resonates. It’s gotten easier because many states, including my home state of Texas, are easing up on draconian ballot access requirements that make it near impossible for minor parties to compete. These laws were written by - who would’ve guessed? - Republicans and Democrats! Lawsuits brought by minor parties are getting favorable court opinions.
By the way, don’t call them “third parties”. There are at least six minor parties in the United States, so they cannot all be “third”. Furthermore, the very use of the adjective “third” implies that Party #1 and Party #2 are hard-wired, set into concrete, permanent, and inscribed into law. Which of course is total bunk.
So letting my imagination run wild, here is my fictional - but hopeful - scenario for 2024:
A minor party nominates a popular, intelligent, eloquent celebrity who gets a lot of attention, say, 10% in the polls. He/she gets invited to the Presidential debates. Trump is miffed that he must share the debate platform with a low-polling “nobody”. He lets his indignation be loud and clear, and constantly interrupts the minor candidate (like he did in the 2020 debate with Biden, but worse). But unlike Biden, our minor candidate will not tolerate this rudeness, and stands his ground. Eventually the debate moderator must intercede. Trump refuses to comply with the rules - so the moderator turns his microphone off. Trump throws a temper tantrum and storms off the stage.
The next day, the polls show the minor candidate taking 4% of Trump’s numbers.
Biden wins the election. Trump, as usual, claims it was “stolen”. Nonetheless, he vows to run again in 2028, and this time, he says, he will win!
But before he can be inaugurated, Biden, 81 years old, has a major health crisis, leaving him incapacitated.
It could happen! Then America’s Fatal Attraction finally comes home to roost.