It's Over, Donnie

I had hoped, vainly of course, that I might be done talking about Trump and his deleterious impact on the mid-term elections. His decision, a mere week after the mid-term debacle that he helped orchestrate, to announce his 2024 Presidential bid meant that there wasn’t even going to be a respite. The great big howler is his proclamation that “America’s comeback starts right now,” given that the GOP losses in several critical Senate races that left the Senate in the Democrats’ hands were thanks to his backing of candidates of dubious quality.

His criteria in those endorsements started with bending of the knee, kissing of the ring, and affirmation of his “stolen election” delusion. Yes, I know you all know people who fervently believe the Dems cooked the books and rigged the game, and you might even believe it yourselves, but as a family member once mentioned, “I believe it but I don’t have proof.” So, until proof is offered, and by proof I don’t mean personal incredulity or outcome-based conclusions of improbability, I mean real evidence that enough votes were improperly cast or tallied to have tipped the outcome, I don’t want to hear it any more.

So, on to Trump and the question of whether he can win in 2024.

The TL;DR summation of today’s offering: No, he cannot. If you reject my conclusion, I still ask that you ponder what Trump brings to the table that DeSantis or one of the other likely GOP primary entrants does not. Why do you need to back Trump at this stage of the game?

With the implosion of Trump’s king-maker narrative went the last vestige of transactional justification for supporting him - either as a Presidential aspirant or as the de-facto head of the Republican party. He might have salvaged the latter, and given the party reason to stay tight with him, if he had stood on a stage with Ron DeSantis and proclaimed the landslide-win governor heir-presumptive to his fan base.

His ego and solipsistic narcissism would allow no such thing. First, he mocked DeSantis with one of his trademark nicknames. Then, he claimed ownership of DeSantis's career by arguing that he helped get him elected. Take note, by the way, that DeSantis himself did nothing to earn Trump's ire - Trump responded to suggestions by others that his time was past, that Ronnie D is now the GOP's brightest star, and that Trump would do best to step aside in favor of the young blood.

Reports of Trump-tantrums are popping up all over the place, and his loyalists have followed his lead in savaging DeSantis for... well... nothing of substance. The big complaint seems to be "loyalty," which is an utter howler given that Trump has never shown an ounce of loyalty to those who worked for him, defended him, and carried his water. The moment any of them dared contradict or even question him, out the window they went. He reportedly smiled and said something like "he deserved it" when people chanted "Hang Mike Pence" at the January 6 rally. He turned on his AG, Bill Barr, after Barr told him that there was no "there" to the election-steal allegations. And, now, when he proved he didn't have the power to bring victories home, he's savaging the party's best performers. Beyond DeSantis, he mocked VA governor Glenn Youngkin, and made some pretty weird comments about his name. And, of course, he's attacking Mitch McConnell, who's been as shrewd a political operator these past years as any GOPer could hope for. For Trump, loyalty is a one-way street.

All this reeks of someone who knows in his gut that he (as more people than I can count have commented) has jumped the shark, but refuses to admit it to himself. His political power has ebbed past any hope of either personal or proxy victory. Yes, I know it really hurts Trump's fans and loyalists to hear this, and I'm not here to bash any of you (mostly... see below). I'm simply joining the "let him go" chorus. As I discussed just a few days ago, the relevant question for his supporters is whether vindication is more important than victory. Do you continue to back someone whose prospects have so dimmed, or do you say "I want a President who can deliver the policies I prefer" and switch to backing someone who can actually win?

Vindication or Victory?

Trump’s run for the GOP nomination will be a long spectacle of self-aggrandizement, a series of chest thumps about how only he can save America, and he will twist and lie and berate and sling mud and do all the things that he’s done across the past seven years. He would rather shred the party than allow one of his competitors to eclipse him. And, as some friends have suggested, if he doesn't get the nod, he might even run third-party, and in doing so possibly kill the GOP's chances at the White House.

The only remedy lies with the voters. Let him go. He can't win. His base might get him a primary win, but it isn't remotely big enough to take the White House, and no one outside that base is going to vote for him. The base is also shrinking - every day, more people are turned off by his continued antics, and the transactional reasons for backing him no longer hold water.

More to the point, there's nothing he brings to the table that half a dozen or more other potential aspirants to the WH don't. You will get your policies even if you leave Trump behind. And, at the end of the day, isn't that what it's really about? Sure, some enjoy Trump pwning his opponents, but that's schoolyard stuff, not policy success.

Trump-bashing may seem like low-hanging fruit at this point, and some people may want to defend him merely because he's being bashed by so many. But, before you fall prey to that reflex, ask - does he deserve it? Did he deliver what he promised? Has he been an utter [redacted] since failing to do so, refusing to take any blame and trashing those he should see as allies? Is there any rational reason to support him over DeSantis or Haley or Scott or a long list of big names in the GOP?

And, for the love of sanity, please don't follow this individual down a 99-D-chess rabbit hole (this is the bash I referred to earlier):

There is no rational interpretation of events that suggests Trump wanted and planned for Oz and Bolduc and Masters and others to lose, and the notion that God chose Trump to lead America is an insult to any God one might (or might not) believe in.

Don’t be that person. Take a step back, consider the options you have, and consider, for just a moment, that your hopes for the nation are better served by putting Trump in the rear view mirror.

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Peter.