Simpleton Statistics

Have you heard that women in the workforce earn only 77 cents for every dollar that men earn? The disparity and the conclusion that systemic sexism is at fault are considered irrefutable facts by millions of Americans. It has been argued and highlighted and frothed over for decades, and I recall actress Patricia Arquette devoting a chunk of her Best Supporting Actress Oscar speech to that gender pay gap, way back in 2015.

Have you heard that college graduates earn more across their lifetimes than non-graduates do? This datum is also considered an irrefutable fact by millions, and is often used as justification for government expenditures (not to mention student loan cancellations) that encourage people to attend college.

Both statistics are superficially correct. If you take all men and all women and figure out average hourly wages, you get that answer. If you take all college grads and all non-grads and figure out average lifetime earnings, you get that answer.

The problem for those who would use those stats as policy justifications, or as social critiques, or even as the basis for advice, is that the moment you realize the populations (all men, all women, all college grads, all non-grads) are not homogeneous, the stats lose their utility. And, indeed, lead to erroneous conclusions.