Oops! Trump Did It Again...

The much ballyhooed Red Wave predicted for yesterday's elections turned out to be like those I remember from summers in Greece as a child: little splashes barely bigger than those in a bathtub. Whereas the GOP hoped to pick up three seats in the Senate, it's on the cusp of actually losing one, in a time of broad voter discontent with the Democratic leadership. The House results aren't complete yet, but it does appear that the Republicans will take the majority, but it’ll be a much smaller one than predicted or hoped for.

What happened?

In a word, Trump happened. And I warned y'all about it over the summer.

Trump and the Senate

In the Pennsylvania Senate race, Trump-endorsed Mehmet Oz lost. In New Hampshire, Trump-endorsed Donald Bolduc lost. In Arizona, Trump-endorsed Blake Masters lost.

In Georgia, Trump-endorsed Herschel Walker appears headed to a run-off. Two years ago, Trump cost the GOP a Senate majority by telling his voters not to bother voting in the Georgia senate runoff, because cheating and voter fraud and other such unsubstantiated blather. He cost the GOP a Senate majority then, and enabled the Democrats to run amok with their squeaker margins. Republican Brian Kemp easily beat Stacey Abrams in the governor’s race, which further highlights Walker’s weakness as a candidate.

In Nevada, Trump-endorsed Adam Laxalt is trailing. If both Laxalt and Walker win, then the GOP takes a 51-49 Senate majority, but the gambling markets put that outcome at one chance in five.

If things shake out as they appear at the moment, this midterm will have proven to be as much a referendum on Trump and Trumpism as on the state of the nation.

It would also make Trump a three-time loser, and validate the concerns of many that, of all the potential candidates the Republican Party has for the 2024 Presidency, Trump is the most beatable.

Meanwhile, down in Florida, the state's voters came out strong for both Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio, who won by 20% and 16% margins respectively. Based on that stronger-than-expected showing and the rest of it, DeSantis leapfrogged Trump in the gambling markets and is now showing as the most likely to win the White House in 2024.

Could this be the end of the GOP's Trump era?

I certainly hope so. I've argued repeatedly here that Trump loyalists lose nothing and gain a lot by moving on to DeSantis, who offers many of the same policy ideas without the baggage or volatility. Trump people - ball's in your court. Your star has thrice blown it - once by losing to Biden, once by costing the GOP both Georgia Senate seats, and now by endorsing candidates based on their ring-kissing more than their quality.

This is not the outcome I had hoped for. The Democrats really deserved a newspaper across the nose, but they'll spin their (probable) retention of the Senate as a validation of their agenda. Ditto for their modest losses in the House, given that incumbent parties usually lose seats.

It'll probably translate into a couple more years of Biden governing like a leftist, and a lot of concomitant pain.

But, if we are to silver-lining this mid-term, that lining might very well be The Donald finally being pushed off the national stage.

Before the election, Trump warned DeSantis against running, predicting his fans would turn their back on the Florida governor. The dynamic has changed mightily in a day. Trump's luster is gone, his king-making a failure, and his likelihood to regain the White House in 2024 has taken a very big hit.

Will his loyalists do the smart thing and move on to DeSantis or one of the other rising GOP stars? Or will they choose to continue backing the nag?

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