Red-White-And-Blue Handcuffs

By most accounts, Israel has prosecuted a phenomenally successful war against the terrorist organizations that seek its destruction. Precipitated by the magnitude and barbarity of the 10/7 Hamas attack and hostage-taking, Israel, despite the entire world clucking, has not only severely damaged the ability of Hamas and Hezbollah to continue their terroristic attacks, it has devastated the leadership structures of both groups. This has prompted Iran to take direct aggression against Israel, rather than its longstanding use of proxies such as Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, and more.

That direct action, most recently in the form of a two hundred missile barrage on October 1, was mostly thwarted by air and ground missile defenses. A similar barrage took place this past April, and was similarly ineffective.

As the world waits for and speculates about Israel's expected retaliatory action, the Biden Administration, which has been playing "split the baby" for most of the year that has elapsed since the 10/7 massacre after initially voicing full-throated support for Israel, is urging warning Israel not to strike Iran's nuclear or petroleum facilities.

This is Kharg Island. 90% of Iran's million barrels per day in petroleum exports pass through the facilities there.

Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf

Location of Kharg Island

This is the Jask terminal. Only recently operational, it delivers much of the rest of Iran's oil exports, and it has the benefit of being outside the problematic Strait of Hormuz.

Location of Jask Oil Terminal

Damage to either of those facilities would put a massive cramp in Iran's finances, economy, and ability to fund its long-running mission to eradicate Israel, and would be a huge blow to the nation that is the source of so much that is wrong in the Middle East.

If I, a layman who only dabbles in global politics, recognizes this, you can bet your sweet bippie that everyone in a position of strategic analysis in Israel, Iran, the US, and everywhere else knows this as well. That includes our President (and/or his handlers and puppet masters). It's emphasized by the preemptive and very public warning Biden issued.

Why would Biden warn Israel off striking oil facilities? Iran has proven time and again to be a paper tiger, loud on roar but lousy on military effectiveness, so I figure the voiced fears of igniting a world war are more bluster than reality. I suspect something more base, as in a fear that a spike in oil prices ahead of the election would hurt Harris's chances at victory by reminding voters of the Democrats’ antipathy to domestic oil production.

Then there are the nuclear facilities.

A quick primer: Naturally occurring uranium consists mostly of the isotope with an atomic number of 238 (U-238), and about 0.7% of it has an atomic number of 235 (U-235). U-238 isn't particularly useful, but U-235 is. "Enriching" uranium to a concentration of 3-5% U-235 allows it be used to fuel nuclear power plants. This is "low-enriched uranium (LEU)." To be useful for nuclear bombs, uranium needs to be enriched to about 90% U-235. This is "highly-enriched" (HEU) or weapons-grade uranium. The enrichment process is laborious and technically challenging, but it's understood.

Iran has been enriching uranium for decades, and has amassed a stockpile of "medium-enriched uranium (MEU)." Google reports that, "as of May 27, 2024, Iran has 142.1 kilograms (313.2 pounds) of uranium enriched to 60% purity," and inspectors detected particles as high as 84%. For reference, the Little Boy bomb dropped on Hiroshima, which had a 20 kiloton yield, contained 64 Kg of HEU.

Obama's nuclear deal with Iran called for the elimination of its MEU stockpiles, but color me quite skeptical that, even if Trump had ratified that deal, Iran would have actually played along.

In short, it is only a matter of time until Iran manages to enrich enough uranium to make a "device," as the community refers to nuclear bombs. Getting it to work is another matter, but the principles are not secret.

A nuclear-armed Iran would be a seismic shift in geopolitics, and an existential threat to Israel.

Why, then, would Biden specifically tell Israel not to strike Iran's nuclear facilities? Again, it seems to come down to base politics. It's safe to conclude that Biden has had and continues to have policy ideas that are an extension of those of his former boss Obama. The White House is full of Obamaites, and Obama's ego still wants to be fed by being proven right about negotiating with Iran. So, I figure that President Harris would resurrect Obama's fantasy of negotiating Iran out of its nuclear ambitions, and so Israel gets warned off doing something that might jeopardize that delusional ambition.

I said right after 10/7 that Israel would be better off retaliating alone, rather than seeking US aid. That the aid received would come with strings, caveats, and handcuffs. It did, but Netanyahu et al called Biden's bluff a couple times by not bending the knee. I think that will continue, and Israel will do what is deemed most effective in its response to the 10/1 missile barrage. Given the success of "decapitation" efforts, I'd not be surprised to see more generals and high-level leaders going to meet Allah.

I'd also not be surprised in the slightest if Biden continues to scold the Israelis for actually prosecuting a war rather than hamstringing themselves by agreeing to a deal that would simply allow Hamas and Hezbollah to reinvigorate. Because there's an election in three weeks, and the fate of an allied nation takes a distant back seat to political selfishness.