I've concluded that the 10/1 missile strike by Iran was far more effective than what we've been led to believe. First, there's been a media blackout internal to Israel following the attack. Second, we know this attack included ballistic missiles against which the Iron Dome is not effective - so there were leakers. Third, we know the US has sent a THAAD battery which IS effective against ballistic missiles (in fact, is its only purpose). Fourth, we know the Israelis are "holding back" right now - for some reason, which I suspect is waiting for the THAAD battery to be fully operational. So the state of play is this: Israel will strike when THAAD is ready to protect their key assets against ballistic missiles. I imagine that the THAAD battery deployment came with certain "handcuffs" as you say. I cannot say if the Israelis will honor their end of the deal once it is ready. But Israel is not in a mood to tolerate further strikes against them, so I suspect their primary target will be Iran's medium and intermediate range ballistic missiles. How would Iran then respond? Hard to say, but closing the Straits would certainly be a way to ratchet up.
Interesting about the bombardment's effectiveness. I'd be surprised if they could pull off a media blackout to that degree, given the hostility that the press has for Israel.
I think a strike at their export choke points would work better than trying to lock up the Strait.
Contemporaneous media reports say the target in Israel was Tel Aviv, however I believe Iran used (what is for them) strategic weapons against strategic targets - military bases, especially Israeli Air Force bases, most of which would be remote from population centers. So it would be easier to control media access - most reporters don't leave Tel Aviv, Haifa or Jerusalem anyway.
Israel's response will be similarly strategic: take out Iran's ballistic missile threat. Israel isn't threatened by Iran's oil output - but their ballistic missiles are an immediate, existential threat. Iron Dome provides very little if any defense against ballistic missiles. Patriot PAC-3 has very limited capability against ballistic missiles. Only THAAD provides the wide area protection needed to give Israel protection against this threat.
Israel may either fail to share their full retaliation plan, or only share a leading version with the US, as the Biden Administration incessantly leaks such Intel. Mossad can't prevent the leaks, but they may use that to their advantage. Another option is wait 3 more weeks to strike, betting on Trump winning the election.
With all the massive egos on our side of the world, there'll be a lot of miffed Best-and-Brightest when (not if) Israel acts without fully apprising us. I say, "Good."
If Israel wants Trump to win, striking beforehand and having Harris make a prune face about it wouldn't hurt.
That is the prevailing opinion in our office here. Sadly, to date neither the Mossad, the Israeli MOD, the IDF or the Trump campaign have asked our opinion or advice.
I've concluded that the 10/1 missile strike by Iran was far more effective than what we've been led to believe. First, there's been a media blackout internal to Israel following the attack. Second, we know this attack included ballistic missiles against which the Iron Dome is not effective - so there were leakers. Third, we know the US has sent a THAAD battery which IS effective against ballistic missiles (in fact, is its only purpose). Fourth, we know the Israelis are "holding back" right now - for some reason, which I suspect is waiting for the THAAD battery to be fully operational. So the state of play is this: Israel will strike when THAAD is ready to protect their key assets against ballistic missiles. I imagine that the THAAD battery deployment came with certain "handcuffs" as you say. I cannot say if the Israelis will honor their end of the deal once it is ready. But Israel is not in a mood to tolerate further strikes against them, so I suspect their primary target will be Iran's medium and intermediate range ballistic missiles. How would Iran then respond? Hard to say, but closing the Straits would certainly be a way to ratchet up.
Interesting about the bombardment's effectiveness. I'd be surprised if they could pull off a media blackout to that degree, given the hostility that the press has for Israel.
I think a strike at their export choke points would work better than trying to lock up the Strait.
Contemporaneous media reports say the target in Israel was Tel Aviv, however I believe Iran used (what is for them) strategic weapons against strategic targets - military bases, especially Israeli Air Force bases, most of which would be remote from population centers. So it would be easier to control media access - most reporters don't leave Tel Aviv, Haifa or Jerusalem anyway.
Israel's response will be similarly strategic: take out Iran's ballistic missile threat. Israel isn't threatened by Iran's oil output - but their ballistic missiles are an immediate, existential threat. Iron Dome provides very little if any defense against ballistic missiles. Patriot PAC-3 has very limited capability against ballistic missiles. Only THAAD provides the wide area protection needed to give Israel protection against this threat.
“You bet your sweet bippie”. I miss Laugh-In. “Say Goodnight, Dan”
I couldn't remember the origin of that. Thanks for the reminder.
Biden would let the Iron Dome collapse. They need our help!
Israel may either fail to share their full retaliation plan, or only share a leading version with the US, as the Biden Administration incessantly leaks such Intel. Mossad can't prevent the leaks, but they may use that to their advantage. Another option is wait 3 more weeks to strike, betting on Trump winning the election.
With all the massive egos on our side of the world, there'll be a lot of miffed Best-and-Brightest when (not if) Israel acts without fully apprising us. I say, "Good."
If Israel wants Trump to win, striking beforehand and having Harris make a prune face about it wouldn't hurt.
That is the prevailing opinion in our office here. Sadly, to date neither the Mossad, the Israeli MOD, the IDF or the Trump campaign have asked our opinion or advice.
I, for one, am grateful to Israel for making the world safer by ridding the middle east of self proclaimed terrorists. We all owe them.